Remember the infamous red and blue map from 2000? Someone had the bright idea of using it as a baseline and applying current polling results to it. According to his explanation, he is slightly biasing things against Bush (deliberately) in his methodology by assuming Nader will not run in 2004 and by using the best Democratic poll for each state (e.g., he may use a Kerry vs. Bush poll in Massachusetts and a Bush vs. Edwards poll in South Carolina). This has given a very interesting result.

According to his research, if the election were held today, Bush would narrowly win. Many pundits, myself included, have thought we might see a landslide victory by Bush in November. This is the first objective forecast that I've seen that shows we are still a divided nation. As I've explained, it does stack things slightly against Bush, but I think his approach is quite reasonable. It will be interesting to see how his map changes as we get closer to November.

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