None of their theories made sense to me, especially those who blamed the results on hypothetical Republicans who may have voted for Edwards in the primary. Why would this matter? Good question. The pundits said it would cause Kerry to spend more time concentrating on the primary and less time attacking President Bush.
Actually, if any Republicans were playing games (and I do not endorse such behavior), the smart move would have been to vote for Kerry. Unless he self-destructs as quickly as Howard Dean managed to do, Kerry is the presumptive nominee to be the Democratic contender. And while Kerry continues to hack off Southerners, he is still popular with Democrats in most of the country. His public positions are far to the left of Edwards which will not help Kerry win the swing voters. Republicans would be stupid to do anything to increase the chances that Bush would have to run against Edwards instead of Kerry. Not only is Edwards relatively moderate compared to Kerry, he might actually win a Southern state or two. Risking facing a much more competitive opponent in exchange for making Kerry spend a few more days nailing down the nomination would be a poor trade-off for any Republicans.
No, the reason why the race was so close is because of the potential intern scandal. Most Democrats only care about one thing in their candidate: electability. Voters abandoned Dean in droves once it was clear he could not beat Bush. I believe many Wisconsin Democrats were simply worried that the intern scandal would tar Kerry, so they voted for Edwards instead. As this story ages (and is buried behind disclaimers that there is no proof), I suspect Kerry will easily win on Super Tuesday and then it will be Kerry versus Bush from that point forward.
It looks like self-destructing Dean is finally going to bail this week too. If he endorsed Edwards, he could probably make the campaign much more competitive. However, early indications are that he will not do so. I suspect he is negotiating with both Edwards and Kerry for a potential administrative position should Bush be defeated.
