April 29, 2004
 
The Importance of Electoral Votes
Given the comments on my post on political demographics, I thought I'd spend a bit of time reviewing the electoral college and our current population.

All fifty states plus Washington, DC have a total of 538 electoral votes. 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency (~50.2%). Every ten years the US government has a very detailed census that is used, amongst other things, to apportion these electoral votes. Thus politicians argue about what statistical methods are used. Despite this, the Census department does a remarkable job performing a difficult task. The last major census was performed in 2000 and these current population figures will be used in determining the electoral votes for each state in November's elections.

I've created a table showing how many electoral votes each state has as well as how this has changed since the last election. The green highlights are for states that now have more influence than they did in the 2000 election. Likewise, the red highlights are for states that now have less influence than they did in the 2000 election.

 
 
 
April 28, 2004
 
The Usual Suspects: An Unusual Outcome
Imagine you are a young Hamas terrorist who believes if you die attacking enemies of your religion you will go directly to paradise. You strap explosives to yourself and a companion travels with you to help you get into Israel.

But what's this? Two Palestinian gunmen have spotted you. Perhaps they will help you against those Jewish children in Israel that deserve to die. What! They want your bombs?

You were prepared to die anyway, so you push the button and eliminate these two thugs and injure your guide as the bombs on your chest explode. As you die, you belatedly wonder if there is any reward for killing presumably Islamic thugs instead of your enemy...

Believe it or not, this story is essentially true. I expect we'll see more stories like this once Israel finishes its wall.

Tip of the helm to King of Fools

 
 
Rough Week for Kerry
I could almost feel sorry for Senator Kerry. In a matter of days, he has been blasted from the right (Cheney), the left (ABC), the Catholic church, and his own supporters.

 
 
Political Demographics
The election is just over six months away. Political managers are pouring over the figures from the 2000 election. I thought my readers might enjoy the same exercise.

Voters Supporting:
Gore
Bush
Nader
Black
89
8
3
White
42
54
3
Hispanic
67
31
2
Asian
55
41
3
Unmarried Women
63
32
4
All Married
44
53
2
All Not Married
57
38
4
Union Member
59
37
3
Gay
70
25
4
Gun Owner
36
61
2
Protestant
34
63
2
Jewish
79
19
2
Catholic
52
45
2
White Protestants
32
62
3
Black Protestants
95
4
1
Mormons
12
88
0
Republicans
7
91
1
Democrats
85
10
3
Men
42
51
4
Women
49
43
3
18-29
48
46
5
30-44
48
49
2
45-59
48
49
2
60 +
51
47
2
High School Grad
49
48
1
College Grad
45
51
3
Post-Graduate Degree
52
44
3

These demographics may help you understand some of the political games candidates play as they try to influence those voters where they think they have a realistic chance of swaying opinion.

Source: Someone emailed me a list of voter patterns from the 2000 election, but did not give their source. I have looked at previous information from the US government before, and these look fairly accurate (different polling methods will give you slightly different results, but if you see any that are more than 2% different from other polls, let me know). I suspect these figures originally came from the US government, but it is possible someone did their own survey.

 
 
Religion,Economics,International Affairs

Since this site seems to have entries on all of the above (religion, economics and international affairs) I thought this article would be of interest:

Basically the UK clergyman's union is in a dither about people choosing to "offshore prayer" (I am not making this up).

The key sentence is:

"Religious services and prayers for the dead are being offshored from the United Kingdom to India because of a lack of priests," Amicus, whose one-million-plus membership includes several thousand clergymen, said in a statement Wednesday."

Will the priests and ministers of the UK all go on strike? Isn't a clergy industrial action like putting the country under the Interdict?. That is sort of nostalgic. I don't think England has been under the Interdict for 500 years.

I wonder if the acquis communautaire (The EU's regulation of private life) will now make it a human rights violation to pray while there is a strike (industrial action) in place? In general the right to strike trumps all other rights in the EU :-)

 
 
 
April 27, 2004
 
Silver Linings – Humor in Tragedy
Divorce is a painful tragedy. One man has found a unique way to help cope with his circumstances. The rest of this post is from Ebay. Yes, Ebay, the internet's classified section. I'm archiving the entire post since Ebay does not store old auctions for more than 90 days. Although long, this is worth the read.

 
 
 
April 26, 2004
 
Three Days to Go!
Dean Esmay is spearheading a fund-raising effort to help American marines build an Iraqi television alternative to Al Jazeera. Yes, believe it or not, our government did not think to include this in their plans for rebuilding Iraq. Fortunately, our military is on the ball and are asking for our help.

If you agree this is a worthy cause and can spare some dollars, click here. If you think this is a good cause, but don't have any spare cash, you can still help. Just forward this message to some of your friends.

 
 
 
April 23, 2004
 
Blunt & Honest vs. Sophisticated & Dishonest
President Bush is one the most honest presidents we have had in quite a while. With two notable exceptions, he has followed through on his campaign promises and acted as he advertised. I strongly disagree with some of his acts, but I admire his character. However, President Bush also manages to hack off many people, especially Europeans, with his bluntness.

Compare this with his predecessor. President Clinton was a stereotypical politician, albeit more popular than most, and he frequently lied to people. Yet, he was charismatic, especially in person. I once had the opportunity to hear him speak as part of a relatively small audience (about 200 or so). It was amazing. I had to fight to keep myself from nodding affirmation when he spoke about things with which I strongly disagreed. Despite (or because of) the fact he misled them, Europeans loved Clinton. President Clinton had a much higher approval rating amongst Europeans than he did amongst Americans.

The contrast between a blunt, honest man who has trouble with long speeches and a sophisticated, charismatic politician who could captivate an audience for hours has intrigued me since President Bush was elected. Peggy Noonan recently gave her opinion about President Bush's popularity.

 
 
 
April 22, 2004
 
President Bush, Warfare, & a Historical Perspective
A Republican friend of mine emailed me this letter that is apparently floating around conservative email circles. Although clearly biased, it offers an interesting and sometimes humorous perspective.
Liberals claim President Bush shouldn't have started this war. They complain about his prosecution of it. One liberal recently claimed Bush was the worst president in U.S. history. Let's clear up one point: We didn't start the war on terror. Try to remember, it was started by terrorists BEFORE 9/11. Let's look at the "worst" president and mismanagement claims.

FDR (Democrat) led us into World War II. Germany never attacked us: Japan did. From 1941-1945, 450,000 lives were lost, an average of 112,500 per year.

Truman (Democrat) finished that war and started one in Korea, North Korea never attacked us. From 1950-1953, 55,000 lives were lost, an average of 18,333 per year.

John F. Kennedy (Democrat) started the Vietnam conflict in 1962. Vietnam never attacked us.

Johnson (Democrat) turned Vietnam into a quagmire. From 1965-1975, 58,000 lives were lost, an average of 5,800 per year.

Clinton (Democrat) went to war in Bosnia without UN or French consent, Bosnia never attacked us. He was offered Osama bin Laden's head on a platter three times by Sudan and did nothing. Osama has attacked us on multiple occasions.

In the two years since terrorists attacked us, President Bush (Republican) has liberated two countries, crushed the Taliban, crippled al-Qaida, put nuclear inspectors in Lybia, Iran and North Korea without firing a shot, and captured a terrorist who slaughtered 300,000 of his own people. We lost 600 soldiers, an average of 30 a year and our allies lost a similar number. Bush did all this abroad while preventing another terrorist attack on US soil.

The Democrats are complaining about how long the war is taking, but...

It took less time to take Iraq than it took Janet Reno to take the Branch Davidian compound. That was a 51 day operation.

We've been looking for evidence of chemical weapons in Iraq for less time than it took Hillary Clinton to find the Rose Law Firm billing records.

It took less time for the 3rd Infantry Division and the Marines to destroy the Medina Republican Guard than it took Teddy Kennedy to call the police after his Oldsmobile sank at Chappaquiddick.

This is obviously a biased article, but I thought it did clearly made the point that many who point fingers at Bush are doing so because he is Republican, not because of his actions. What is even more indicting is that President Bush is one of the few Presidents who used our troops as set forth in the Constitution. He made his case before the people and our elected Representatives (including Senator Kerry) gave Bush authorization to act.

 
 
 
April 19, 2004
 
Oil Reserves
In the comments of one of Drew's posts, several people have discussed the finite nature of oil reserves. The fascination people have with Earth running out of oil has always interested me. Yes, oil is a finite and consumable resource. However, the known reserves of oil are larger than ever and continue to grow as we explore more of our planet. Frankly, I expect the known oil reserves to continue to grow throughout my lifetime even if almost every family in China manages to buy a car (which may indeed come to pass in the next few decades).