Mucscat, Oman – On behalf of the Command Post, I have been asking for local opinions about the American involvement in Iraq while I am working in Oman. Most residents, and the local press, use the term intervention when discussing the situation. I have only heard a few folks call it the liberation of Iraq and I have yet to hear anyone call it an invasion, but that may be out of politeness to me (I'm obviously from an Anglicized country even if they do not know which one. I would have thought my speech patterns would give it away, but people have incorrectly guessed England, Australia, Canada, and South Africa as my point of origin as well as some correctly guessing America).

I believe my observations are only generalizable for white collar Omanis and possibly just those in the capital city of Oman (Muscat). In terms of population, Oman is a small country with roughly 2 million citizens and 600,000 expatriates (people from other countries that are brought in to work). The expatriates are either treated very well (mostly the white collar and oil professionals) or as common laborers (who do the hard physical labor that the Omanis do not want to do themselves). Keep in mind that my observations may or may not be generalizable to the greater Arabian culture. I expect that these observations are fairly generalizable to business professionals throughout Arabia, but probably do not represent the opinions of the main population.

Omanis and the local expatriates who have been here a while (most of the expatriates with whom I spoke have been working in various Middle Eastern countries for six to twelve years) think the removal of Saddam was a very good thing. Most of the Arabs have very mixed feelings about it. They are delighted with Saddam's downfall, but not happy that the Americans had to do it. This seems to have its roots in both suspicion of American motives, but also in their native pride. They are embarrassed that the Arabian nations could not do this themselves and that they let the situation get so bad that America finally stepped in, like a mature adult finally putting a stop to squabbling children when things get out of hand. Even those who fully support the coalition's efforts and intellectually know the coalition has good intentions have stated that the presence of the coalition hurts their pride.

As one might expect, there is a wide range of opinion about what should be done next and how things are getting done. However, I have found two fairly universal themes. Virtually all those with whom I spoke, both Omani and white-collar expatriates, see the Iraqi intervention in terms of American strength or weakness and as a looming problem.

First, this is seen as a test of America's strength. The prevailing attitude seems to be that America's command of the skies approaches the supernatural and America's command of the seas is not far behind, but America has nothing special when it comes to holding territory and using ground forces. Should Americans write off Iraq and flee as they are perceived to have done with Vietnam and other local incidents, it will greatly reinforce this negative opinion of American military power. The current uprisings in Iraq are seen as a military problem and they are watching to see if America and its friends are up to the task.

There are various opinions on whether or not America would stay the course. Most thought the US would and others thought the US would not. The forthcoming elections also played a role. Many thought the US would run away if Kerry were elected while others thought Kerry would have no choice but to stay and protect the reputation of the United States. Interesting enough, those who thought that Kerry would run away were pro-Bush. Those who thought Kerry would stay were split on the issue of Bush vs. Kerry. In addition, this latter camp didn't really care – the Omanis are very focused on developing their country and in providing a comfortable living for their families. Their preferences aside, the common expectation is that Bush will win.

The second point of consensus was that the situation in Iraq was getting worse. I pressed for details and this common opinion is not just based on media reports (thus shattering one vain hope of mine). Many people had second- or third-hand knowledge from friends who had visited Iraq and one person had visited Iraq himself multiple times since the fall of Saddam - yet another phrase for the American intervention.

Other Observations

One British expatriate who had been in the region for the last six years was both quite opinionated and informed. As a British citizen, he and his wife have freely traveled through most of the Arabian countries, including two recent trips to Iran. He was critical of Bush, but his complaints were that Bush was not being strong enough with the military. He thinks that Bush should send more troops and use them much more. Strength is appreciated in Arabian culture. After hearing this, I expected my British interviewee to be rooting for Kerry when I asked him if he had a preference in our presidential election. He emphatically said Bush because he thought Kerry would be a disaster for the Middle East if he were elected president.

Interestingly enough, there is more speculation about the Australian election than the American election. While the local consensus is that President Bush will win in the US, the fate of John Howard is less certain. Rightly or wrongly, the locals firmly believe that the terrorists scared the Spanish voters into bringing down their pro-American government. Many believe the Australians are just as cowardly as the Spanish and the terrorists will succeed in toppling John Howard as well. In a similar vein, many expect the British to be the primary terrorist target after the Australian elections in an attempt to topple Tony Blair.

This has been the experience of one visitor to Oman.

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