Unless you were deliberately avoiding the media, you have heard of 3/11. 911 days after al Qaeda struck the United States, they struck one of our allies in the war on terror. In Madrid, Spain, almost 200 people died when a series of ten bombs went off on subway trains. Another 1,500 were injured.

Yesterday, just four days after the terrorist attack, Spain held a national election. Until the terrorist attack, the Spanish Popular Party was expected to win the majority of votes. They are the party in power, and have been a strong ally in our war on terror. The first promise the Spanish Socialist party leader made (the main opposition) was to remove Spanish troops from Iraq if elected. Because of the terrorist attack, enough Spanish voters changed their minds and placed the Socialist Party in power. The surprising results of yesterday's elections have major implications.

Those on the left tend to be jubilant. They are thrilled that the Socialists will be in power and they are happy that an administration that strongly supported President Bush has been brought down. Those on the right are a bit downcast. They cannot imagine why any country would give in to terrorism.

Dean Esmay has one of the more rational points of view on what these events mean for Spanish-American relations.

By the way, Spain? Thanks a lot for being there for us when we needed you. We look forward to your continuing friendship even if we disagree over one issue. And I still weep for your loss last week, and hope we can help you catch those responsible.

I agree with this sentiment, although I strongly disagree with Dean that the Al Qaeda "victory" will be rather short-lived and disappointing [if the new Spanish P.M. keeps his word]. For the first time in modern history, the results of a terrorist act have directly resulted in the change of government of a major Western power. This was a major victory for al Qaeda and the results of their success will be more terrorism.

Al Qaeda has claimed responsibility for this horrific act. This success, and Sunday's election made the attack a tremendous success for al Qaeda, will undoubtedly spawn other attacks in countries where terrorist acts may influence voters in a way desired by terrorists. Al Qaeda's objectives were known.

Security experts say they think toppling the Spanish government was al Qaeda's explicit goal in last week's attacks.

They point to a 50-page book, Iraq al-Jihad, which appeared on militant Internet sites last December and discussed attacking Spanish targets to increase public hostility to the war and bring down Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar.

It explicitly suggested militants "exploit the coming elections in Spain in March, 2004," according to excerpts provided by Janusian's Claridge.

"We think the Spanish government could not afford more than two or three attacks...after which it would have to withdraw as a result of popular pressures," the book said.

Added Claridge: "In the end, they only needed one (attack)."

Thus, the Spanish election was a major victory for the terrorists and a setback for the war on terror. Now that the terrorist have seen that they can topple one pro-USA government with a single attack, I suspect they will attempt this again in Europe, before another major election. Who will they target? Terrorists are not completely rational, by definition, but the UK would be a logical target. Like Spain, many of its citizens have major doubts about the war on terror. A major attack in the UK might motivate the swing voters to vote for those who oppose the war on terror. They would be helped by the UK media who cannot even call vicious killers like the late Abu Abbas by the name of terrorist. Italy is another logical target.

If the terrorists understand the American mindset better than they did before 9/11, they will not hit the States again. The majority of Americans support the war on terror and approve of President Bush's actions here. In fact, President Bush may be a victim of his own success; the war on terrorism has gone so well that it is no longer a focal issue for many Americans. Another attack in the States would virtually assure a Bush reelection. I suspect the attack on Spain will result in a mild Bush bounce in the polls as people think about the war on terror, but this bounce will vanish shortly after the media starts covering other news.

I looked up the statistics on the Spanish election. With 99.4 percent of the ballots counted, the Socialists had 42.6 percent of the vote, about 164 seats in the next parliament, compared with 37.7 percent, and 148 seats, for the Popular Party. Like many democracies, including our own, Spain is divided. Their change in government will not have a major impact on Spanish-American relations. However, their perceived capitulation to terrorism will provide substantial incentive for al Qaeda to strike again.

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