As a group, the Democrats continue to raise more money than the Republicans. This slight edge has grown by a full percentage point since I last reviewed the situation in November. Yet, as a wise man once said, a house divided against itself will not stand.
One of the advantages of incumbency is that their party's money is usually not spent in a primary fight. President Bush has $104 million dollars on hand in his warchest. Senator Kerry has $2 million. Even if the Democrats continue to raise $1.19 for every $1.00 the Republicans raise, and it all goes to Kerry, the Democrats would have to raise $537 million dollars (compared to the Republicans raising $452 million) to pull even. Unless George Soros or Teresa Heinz decide to commit a major portion of their wealth, it is not going to happen.
Scott,
First, kudos to you for your efforts to help elect a serious Democratic candidate. I think you went above and beyond the call for a Republican.
I don't know if the Democrats will continue to outraise the Republicans or not. There are many factors and I certainly cannot estimate all of them. 1) As you pointed out, some people who funded non-Kerry Democratic alternatives will not fund Kerry. 2) Now that Kerry has wrapped up the Democratic nomination, more people will back him. In fact, Kerry has doubled his cash on hand by receiving another two million dollars since he won Super Tuesday. 3) Human nature – I expect many Democrats will donate because they know Bush has so much more money than Kerry. Americans love underdogs and most Democrats actually see the press as fairly neutral, so they see Bush as having an immense advantage since he can buy more ads. Likewise, many Republicans may think Bush does not need more money since he already has a $102 million dollars in the bank.
My guess is Kerry will start receiving much more in donations than Bush. However, since I am pro-life and I support the war on terror, I have two reasons to hope you are right. But we shall see.
The fact of the Democrats outraising the Republicans can surely be attributed in part to the fact that they were in the midst of an active primary campaign. I cannot imagine that they will continue to outpace the Republicans now that Kerry is the presumptive nominee.
I am a Republican, who has never voted for a Democrat; yet I donated $100.00 to Dick Gephardt in the hope of at least having a Democratic nominee that was serious about the War on Terror. So far, the Republicans have only gotten $50.00 out of me, but I expect to contribute another coupla hundred between now and November.