Howard Dean has been predicted to win the Democratic primary by many pundits, including myself. Dean is a smart, canny politician who has moved to the extreme left for the campaign and undoubtedly expects to move back to the center after winning the Democratic primary. However, for a smart man, Dean has done a lot of stupid things recently. Recognizing that the South is turning more conservative every year, he tried to appeal to them. But Dean managed to insult the overwhelming majority of them when he admonished Southerners to quit basing their votes upon "race, guns, God and gays." As Adam Graham eloquently remarked:
No other group besides Southerners are forbidden from honoring their heritage because of the wrongs their forbearers committed. Many Native American tribes practiced human sacrifice and awful methods of torture. African tribes were involved in slavery long before the White man came. The British Empire oppressed countless peoples across two oceans. Germany was the aggressor in two World Wars. Yet, they are not denied the right to honor their heritage.
Lincoln ended the Civil War by promising "charity to all and malice towards none." The Democratic Party, however, wants the world to know that they dishonor and disrespect the heritage of Southern Americans with a fanatical passion.
By declaring that Southerners should no longer base their votes on race, Dean is slamming the South as racist and demanding that they move on and mend their ways. Might I dare suggest that it is not the South but the Democratic Party that needs to leave the '60s behind?
In the modern South, Blacks and Whites coexist together in growing peace and harmony. The old sores of yesteryear are being healed for the most part. There are strong Black Republican candidates for congress in North Carolina and Georgia.
Dean does not and cannot understand the South. His slanderous statement that the South does not support Democrats because it is racist underlies the actual reason why they do not vote for this party.
By telling them not to base their votes on guns, Dean is making light of the Second Amendment and the concerns of those who want to preserve and protect their rights from government interference. You'll have to forgive the poor Southerners who care about the Constitution.
By telling them not to vote based on God, Dean is asking them to abandon their concerns about moral issues such as abortion and prayer in school. He's telling them to discard the faith of their fathers to support the Democrats’ campaign of death and decadency.
By telling them not to vote based on gays, Dean is demanding they accept as normal what they believe to be an abomination in the eyes of God and to have their children taught the same.
Dean demands that South surrender its soul, its heritage, and its liberty. In exchange, he offers them a chance to live on his government dependence plantation. He promises higher health care spending and higher education spending which we'll be paid for, with interest, by their children.
My better half, Lady Quixote, is from the deep South and Graham captured her reaction very well. Given both polls and anecdotal evidence, it seems reasonable to say Dean hurt his already weak chances in the South. So after hacking off a major chunk of the electorate, what does Dean do as an encore?
He has his governmental records sealed to avoid judging him on his complete history. Perhaps he read my intent to research his record if he won the Democratic primary? At any event, Dean then spent a week flip-flopping on why he had his records sealed. Howard Fineman (helm tip to Boots and Sabers) aptly described this:
Politicians never seem to get the concept of irony: Here is a guy who is running on the notion that he is a fearless, truth-telling outsider, and he’s covering up the reason for covering up.
Dean is a smart guy, but like many intellectuals he underestimates the population as a whole. He thinks he is so much smarter than everyone else that he can talk his way out of anything and people will lap it up. Given his problems, why is he still the Democratic frontrunner? Because winning the Democratic primary against his party rivals is a low bar to hurdle. With the potential exception of Gephardt, the others dwarfs do not strike me (or most of those following the campaign) as serious candidates. It remains to be seen if Dean will turn out to be a serious candidate himself.
My bet is: Bush 55%. Dean 45%, given or taken a few points, whether Nader runs or not, for instance. (In that case how about 54%, 42% and 4%?)I know it's just playing with numbers, but I feel it's going to be close to this next Nov.
Lola Lee - thanks for the link.
Miguel - It'll be interesting. There is still a lot of time between now and November 2004, but I also predict Bush to defeat Dean.
Dean is going to have to watch out carefully - here's a good rundown on the Southern way of thinking - http://www.stnicholasparish...