I have updated Solport's employment charts. Earlier this month a lot of people were talking about how the economy is doing better than they expected and we've turned the corner on the employment problem. I disagree. The economy is definitely doing better and I expect it to continue to improve. Logically, this means that employment should improve and last month I used ISM figures to state that:

In general, employment opportunities continue to grow for the non-manufacturing sector. It's been a rough 30 months or so, but I think we are over the hump for this sector. While the rate of increase in new jobs has slowed from last month, more managers still expect to be hiring more people.

On the other hand, employment prospects in the manufacturing sector still look bleak. This may change toward the end of the year, but it is still too early to be confident in this.

As always, remember I am discussing entire sectors (manufacturing and non-manufacturing). There will be specific exceptions to these general trends on an industry by industry basis. The purpose of my charts is to see the big picture.

However, the most recent data shows declines in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment indices according to the most recent ISM data (as shown on the updated charts). In addition, the non-manufacturing job index has fallen below zero again for the first time in months. So I think all the rejoicing about the employment turnaround is premature. The economy is improving, but it remains to be seen when this will translate into new employment opportunities.

It is certainly possible that the employment situation will dramatically improve soon. It is also certainly possible that it will not, or will even grow worse. I will be keeping a careful eye on these figures over the next few months.