(Hat tip to Vodka Pundit)

James Dunnigan has listed the ten worst things that could happen to the US if the West invades Iraq. Some of them are very, very unlikely, but that isn't the point. The point that Dunnigan makes is that Iraq still loses. I find his list interesting, but I believe he did a lot of work and then missed stating the main point - perhaps because it is self-evident to him. The main point is that any of these worse case scenarios is less risky than leaving Saddam in power. Let's examine the risk of leaving Saddam in power.

7 Things That Can Happen if Iraq is NOT Invaded

7. Assume the appeasers are correct and Iraq does not pose a threat to the world outside of the Middle East. Saddam continues to do his part to ensure the Middle East has more than its share of human misery with his actions, including funding Palestine suicide bombers. Dissatisfied Iraqis continue to be beaten and tortured while the UN does nothing. This is the “best-case” of these scenarios.

6. In addition to the aforementioned problems, Saddam provides training and resources to international terrorists. Using Iraq as a place to hide from those fighting terrorism; Al-Qaeda's leaders regroup, plan, and implement additional terrorist acts against the West, including releasing biological weapons in Western cities.

5. In addition to the aforementioned problems, Saddam eventually develops nuclear weapons. He then invades Kuwait again and warns the West that if they interfere he will nuke Israel. He also states that he has buried nuclear weapons in the Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil fields and if he loses, he will detonate them and contaminate the oil for centuries to come.

4. In addition to the aforementioned problems, Saddam smuggles nuclear weapons near or in Western cities as additional blackmail if the West interferes with his plans of conquest of the Middle East.

3. In addition to the aforementioned problems, North Korea considers the West a paper tiger after Saddam remains in power despite defying 12 years worth of UN resolutions. Many analysts already believe North Korea has some nuclear weapons and it is currently restarting its nuclear reactor to produce more. Exploiting their missile technology, North Korea starts selling nuclear-tipped ICBM to rogue nations in exchange for much needed cash. Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are among the initial purchasers.

2. After selling nuclear weapons to multiple nations, North Korea declares war on South Korea, calling for them to recognize they are under the jurisdiction of North Korea. North Korea’s ICBM’s can now reach the coastal cities of the U.S. and the SDI authorized by President Bush is still about five years from being effective. Thus, North Korea threatens to launch ICBMs at the US if they interfere.

1. In addition to the aforementioned problems, Iraq or North Korea sells nuclear weapons to Al-Qaeda or another terrorist organization. Terrorists attempt to blackmail the West. Eventually, they detonate one or more nuclear weapons in major Western cities.

I stopped at seven things because this exercise was too depressing. And while some of these scenarios are unlikely, all are possible. While war is a horrible thing, does anyone truly believe leaving Saddam Hussein in power is less risky than removing him?