Many analysts have stated that the State of Iraq is currently operating as if it had no leader. Given the damage to the Iraqi regime's communication infrastructure and the fact that Saddam is either severely injured, dead, or remaining mostly silent while his forces are under attack, this is a valid conclusion. However, I believe the same could be said of Turkey. I will give some background on the Turkish situation while I summarize recent news.
Kurdistan is an area of the world that consists of parts of Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and a bit of Syria. This area is not a government. A useful analogy for Americans is the area known as New England. While it consists of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont; New England is not a sovereign entity. Imagine if the area of New England largely consisted of Kurds and that ethnic divisions were as important in the US as they are in most of the world. One might expect New England would wish for more autonomy, perhaps even desire to secede from the US if possible.
There are at least thirty million Kurds in Kurdistan. They are the largest ethnic group in the world without their own state. Like the Palestinians, they want their own state. As one would expect, the nations of Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Syria do not wish to give up any land or sovereignty and have strongly opposed this. The situation has resulted in violence many times in all three nations (including Saddam Hussein's gassing of the Kurds with weapons of mass destruction). One sometimes wonders where the "Peace" Activists are in this matter. There are almost four times as many Kurds as Palestinians and they share one of the same goals - Statehood.
The Turkish government fears an independent Kurdish government may arise from the northern part of Iraq. They do not want such a state on their border since they believe the new state would eventually want all of Kurdistan under its reign. The Kurds in Turkey would so desire, so this is an understandable concern. It is very important to keep this in mind when contemplating Turkish actions. There are also about a million ethnic Turks in Iraq which adds additional emotional context to Turkish considerations. In February, the Turkish military was finalizing plans to move 80,000 troops into Northern Iraq to accomplish three objectives. 1) To seize the rich oil fields in the area, 2) to protect the Turks in the area, and 3) to prevent the Kurds from forming their own state.
However, the Turkish government has been acting in a schizophrenic manner. The majority of their government voted to allow US troops to use Turkey as a launching base for a second front on Liberate Iraq war in exchange for massive amounts of economic support. Turkey is undergoing severe economic woes and could have used this support to revitalize their nation. However, despite the majority vote, the Turkish government did not have sufficient votes to pass the agreement under their laws. Eventually the US government withdrew their offer and decided not to enter Northern Iraq via Turkey.
The US has repeatedly and officially asked Turkey not enter Iraq. Germany and Belgium have also warned Turkey not to enter the war and even threatened to withdraw NATO's defense of Turkey and prevent Turkey from entering the EU should Turkey get involved.
Despite the requests from both the Coalition of the Willing and that of "Old Europe", Turkish troops entered Iraq on March 21 with 1,500 commandos. On March 22, Turkey denied this despite allied and media reports to the contrary. The Turkish government may have been unaware of the actions of their military. The current Turkish regime has only been in power for 4 months and their inexperience is clearly showing. However, on March 24, 2003, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan announced that "Turkish troops in Iraq would add to security and stability in the region." Somehow I find it difficult to trust the Turks in this matter, a people who may have even used some Kurds as mine detectors. In fairness, this was not proved beyond a shadow of a doubt.
In response, the US has also speed up deployment of some US military resources to Northern Iraq. This is risky, since they have to travel via non-Turkish routes. On March 24, 2003, US forces officially arrived in North Iraq.Even before this, US forces had been aiding the Kurds in engagements against Saddam's forces in Northern Iraq.
The US government has stated from the beginning they planned for a united Iraq with the Kurds remaining part of a new, integrated, Iraqi government. Of course, it doesn't help when we accidentally drop bombs in Turkey. Fortunately, no one was hurt. However, this will not help improve relations that already have many problems
Communication between Turkish politicians and military officials and their U.S. counterparts have become so poor that U.S. officials are considering the use of spy satellites and other devices to track the movement of Turkish forces.
Assuming Turkey is acting logically, which is not certain, their actions show that they either do not trust the US to keep Iraq in one piece or they are simply acting opportunistically and hoping to grab the northern oil fields to revitalize their economy. The Turkish stock market and lira value, already at record lows, continued plunge to new depths after Turkey's cross into Iraqi territory.
I hope that Turkey will see reason and stay out of Iraq from this point on. In my opinion, this would be best for both the US and Turkey. Turkey's border concerns can be easily met by keeping a large force on their border without crossing into Iraq. If Turkey moves large forces into Iraq I believe their dream of joining the EU will be delayed for many years. Their businessmen (judging by their market) certainly want Turkey to stay out of the war. The US shares the goal of keeping a united Iraq and if this is truly Turkey's main goal, they should not reduce the chances of US success by risking a Kurdish/Turkish war in Northern Iraq.