The first thing to realize about forecasting is that forecasts are guesses. Some guesses are better than others, but without supernatural powers, the best forecasters extrapolate current trends into the future and make predictions based upon these trends. All forecasters have their own biases which impact their forecasts. This is not always bad, but it is something to keep in mind. So I was fascinated to read this prediction. As you read it, see if you can figure out which country’s forecasters created it.
Europe is predicted to become a second-ranking economic force over the next 50 years, its share of world output almost halving from its current 22-percent share to 12 percent.Over the same period, the United States is expected almost to retain its 25-percent share, which will by 2050 be matched or even outpaced by China as the world's dominant economy.
One might expect this to come from the Heritage Foundation or some other conservative American think tank. Or perhaps from a Chinese think tank dreaming of a day when China is the undisputed economic power in the world. Believe it or not, this forecast is by the French Institute for International Relations (IRFI). I found the story in a UPI briefing and then did some basic research on the French think tank. 50% of their funding comes from the French government and they are held in high regard.
I agree with their forecast regarding Europe and the United States because I agree with their reasoning. Wealth comes from human beings. In the information age, most wealth is created by skilled and educated labor, thus most wealth is created by free human beings. I know I am painting with a broad brush here, and there are still some exceptions to this, but it is a good rule of thumb for the creation of wealth. You can still obtain wealth with commodities (such as oil) with any labor source, but to create wealth by creating things (new products, movies, songs, new services), the most success (and wealth) invariably goes to countries with educated citizens who enjoy personal freedom (the States, parts of Europe, Singapore, etc.). I agree with the French think tank because their forecast is based upon their analysis of the future population of the world.
Even if it does absorb 30 million new immigrants by 2050, the European population is still expected to decline in the years 2000-2050, from 493 million to 434 million. In the same period the population of China is expected to grow from 1.34 billion to 1.5 billion with North America -- the United States, Mexico and Canada -- rising from 413 million to 584 million.
So in 2050, Europe is expected to have 88% of the population it has today (a decrease of 59 million). China is expected to have 112% of its current population (an increase of 160 million) and North American is expected to grow by 141% (an increase of 171 million).
This is yet another reason I despise abortion. Not only is it a cruel, barbaric practice, but each abortion literally makes the world a poorer place. Those at planned parenthood should be forced to read the results of the French Think Tank. It will not matter to those making large profits from abortions, but it might make a difference to the misguided idealists who think they are doing good by killing babies.