Those who follow politics closely have been having a wonderful time debating who will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2004. Some have even wondered if Senators Biden or Clinton would join in since the Democrats have no clear front-runner. Now that I am convinced the US economy will be doing well in 2004, I believe none of this matters. For the record, here are my predictions about the 2004 National Elections, offered more than a year in advance.
1) No major Democrat (including Senators Biden and Clinton) will join those Democrats already competing to run against George Bush.
2) It does not matter which Democrat wins the Democratic primary. President George W. Bush will win a second term.
3) President Bush will have strong enough coat-tails that the Republicans will increase their margins in both the Senate and the House.
4) Whether the tax cuts had anything to do with the rising economy or not, the Republicans will use the rising economy to make many of the current tax cuts permanent and will push for more cuts.
If you are a Democrat, start planning for 2006 or 2008. For the immediate future, Dave Barry sums it up best.
Excuse me for laughing until I drool on your shoes, but have you seen the Democrats? There are something like 375 of them running, including somebody named ''Dennis.'' Like we would ever elect a president named ''Dennis.''No, the Democrats have a stature problem. While President Bush is striding manfully around aircraft carriers, the Democrats are clustered together in ''candidate forums'' wherein they shout at each other about senior-citizen dental benefits in front of a nationwide TV audience consisting entirely of their spouses.
Barring a major terrorist attack or rampant stupidity on the part of the Republicans (such as passing another steel tariff or a major scandal), the Democrats have no chance in 2004. My cynical side suspects the Democrats will try to manufacture a scandal, but I do not think this will matter. Given President Bush's strong and capable handling of the war on terror and a rising economy, his re-election is almost assured.
Update: It looks like Cox and Forkum agree:
