**** Introduction – prepared before debate ****

Tonight’s debate, which Schwarzenegger called the “Super Bowl of debates,” is of tremendous importance to the people of California. According to one poll, two-thirds of potential Californian voters “said they would be swayed by the face-off, which could be the most-watched debate in California political history.”

I suspect I lot of people will link to this who are not familiar with me. So let me quickly give my biases. I would like for a pro-life candidate to win, but I suspect the odds of that occurring in California are slim. I am a political independent and would love to see Arianna Huffington do well just to show independents can be a viable political force. Other than these preferences, I don’t really care. I hope whoever is elected can actually help California. All of their problems are not Governor Davis’ fault, but he certainly made things worse and deserves to be recalled.

Now that my relevant biases have been disclosed, let’s continue.

The Players – the top 5 (by polls) candidates participated in tonight’s debate. In alphabetical order, they are:

Cruz Bustamante (D) – currently California’s Lt. Governor
Peter Camejo (Green)
Arianna Huffington (I)
Tom McClintock (R) – currently a California State Senator
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)

With twelve questions, five candidates, and 90 minutes, I fear this will merely turn into a sound-byte fest, but hopefully it will still serve to give some idea of the competence – or lack thereof – of some of the candidates.

**** Debate coverage ****

The debate was far more fluid and interesting than I expected. On economic issues, McClintock and Schwarzenegger gave the conservative line and Bustamante, Camejo, and Huffington gave the liberal line. Both sides attacked each others’ statistics (and Huffington attacked Busamante’s figures too). It was humorous to see McClintock defending Schwarzenegger’s answers, hope he sees the irony in it later.

Camejo did come across as a fiscal conservative during one point in the debate. He attacked Bustamente role in the Davis administration, asking for a 5-year audit to see how the Davis administration went from almost a 40 billion dollar surplus to almost a 40 billion deficit.

Mark Twain once said there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. This was obviously true during the debate and I will not attempt to analyze all of the statistics people were throwing around; I am sure paid writers will do their best on this. However, I study marketing demographics and know quite a bit on one of the issues the candidates raised. McClintock and Schwarzenegger were correct when they said more people were leaving California than were joining it. This started a few years ago in a shocking reversal of historical trends. Only time will tell if this is a fluke or a new trend, but McClintock and Schwarzenegger were correct. The others were either ignorant or deliberately deceptive.

Since the more traditional newspapers should cover the main issues, I’ll spend the rest of my time on my impressions of the candidates.

Bustamante struck me as a pompous hypocrite. He was the only candidate to disagree with the recall election, yet was happy to participate in it. The Lt. Governor admitted the current administration was spending too much money, but wanted to become Governor to fix things. He kept prefacing his remarks that “Arnold [or Arianna], you wouldn’t know about this, but…” Despite my growing dislike for the man, he did well on the issues.

Camejo was interesting. He was knowledgeable, and mostly stuck to the issues. He struck me as a policy wonk. An Albert Gore without the attitude problem. He had no qualms about interjecting himself, but avoided the childishness shown by some of the other talkative candidates. His closing statement scared me (he thinks the Kyoto agreement is a good idea and thinks the US should have left Saddam Hussein in power), but he presented himself very well.

Huffington couldn’t stick to the issues. She had guts, attacking Schwarzenegger and Bustamante constantly and occasionally poking virtually everyone (I’m not sure if she attacked Camejo or not), but tended to rant against Bush, the rich, Republicans, almost anything to avoid sticking to the issues. Once, she even tried to debate the moderator. However, she also had her gracious moments such as when she announced her admiration for McClintock, saying even though she usually disagreed with him, you always knew where McClintock stood.

McClintock was presidential. When he did speak, he was dignified, articulate, and factual. However, he didn’t interject himself nearly as much as anyone else. Other than when he was correcting factual errors, he only spoke when prompted by the moderator. On certain issues, he stood alone and he did so with conviction. He was obviously the only social conservative at the table.

Schwarzenegger did an adequate job. At times he showed he had obviously studied the issues and articulated (in his own way) a deep understanding of the issue. At times he seemed superficial (almost Hollywood like) with simplistic answers. Those that are irritated by President Bush’s smirk were probably outraged by Schwarzenegger’s confident grin. He has a few snappy one-liners, but should have avoided Huffington’s pettiness instead of occasionally sinking to her level.

**** Who Won the Debate? ****

If I were grading the candidates on their debate performance, I would rank the candidates in this way:

First Place - Peter Camejo (Green)
Second Place – Tom McClintock (R)
Third Place – Cruz Bustamante (D)
Fourth Place –- Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)
Fifth Place (LAST) – Arianna Huffington (I)

In a close decision, Camejo won the debate. If McClintock had interjected himself more, I probably would have picked him as the first place winner. In a traditional format, I think he would have won with ease, but he didn’t adapt enough to the fluid format. Camejo did, and he won the debate. That isn’t to say I agree with him on most issues, but I am trying to be as objective as possible.

However, the election does not hinge on who “won” the debate on how well they performed. This may be a good thing – in an ideal world, the election should hinge on the merits of the candidate’s beliefs, not just how well the candidate presents his or her ideas. But people don’t always, or even usually, vote on merit either.

So, in a political sense, Arnold Schwarzenegger won the debate. He was likeable and didn’t make any major errors. The common wisdom says the election is his to lose. He didn’t. While I deeply regret how this simplistically this election is being determined, I think this clinched the election for Schwarzenegger.

Since the actor didn’t shoot himself in the foot, I predict McClintock will withdraw from the race fairly soon. He’ll probably wait until the polls come out tomorrow or Thursday. But if the polls still show Schwarzenegger with a major lead, I think McClintock will withdraw and ensure Schwarzenegger’s victory.

However, if McClintock stays in the election, it will really get interesting. Will California Republicans vote with their heart (McClintock) or their head (Schwarzenegger)? Will they split the vote and allow Bustamante to stay in power? We’ll know the answers soon.

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