The media has a bad reputation for covering scientific issues. Perhaps the same characteristics that allow them to write well also ensures the numerically literate are not well represented. That is a nicer theory than saying that most in the media are too ignorant to understand basic math, let alone science.

At any rate, I had to laugh when I read the varying stories of how the world might end. If you haven’t heard, there is a minuscule chance of an asteroid hitting Earth on March 21, 2014. Based on known information, the odds of the asteroid actually colliding with us are approximately 1 in 909,000. This is a probability of 0.00000110. In other words, don’t worry about it.

Of course, the media has jumped on the potential damage that will occur if the asteroid hits. Nothing wrong with this, asteroid impacts is a staple of science fiction and it is probably a fun change of pace for the reporters. But the funny and sad thing is how the journalists describe how the potential impact without doing any simple facts. My background is marketing, not physics, but I can do basic math.

The articles are consistent in that the potential damage of a collusion is estimated at 350,000 megatons. Presumably this is one of the facts given to various reporters by the astronomers. The majority of the articles that I have read claimed that any collision would be equivalent to simultaneously detonating 8 million Hiroshima-type nuclear bombs.

Let’s check that. A quick google search reveals that Little Boy generated an explosion of about 15,000 tons of TNT. So a Hiroshima type explosion is the equivalent of 15 kilotons or .015 megatons. Simply dividing 350,000 megatonnes (the expected damage) by .015 megatons (Little Boy equivalent) gives an answer of 23,333,333. So the majority of reporters are off by over 15 million nuclear bombs.

I also found a range of estimates from 13 kilotons to 20 kilotons for Little Boy, so I’ll also use these extreme values to cut the reporters some slack. Using these figures, 350,000 megatons is the equivalent of 17,500,000 to 26,923,077. A decent number of reporters gave an estimate of 20,000,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, so kudos to them for getting the story right.

My point is not that the reporters were way off base. The difference between 8 million and approximately 20 million does not really change the impact of the story – both numbers are beyond the imagination of normal people. My point is that reporters do not bother to do the simplest fact checking on their stories. It took me five minutes to check the facts and another ten to write it up. I did this on my break. Reporters are getting paid for their writing and have a responsibility to check their facts. I am not sure if the reporters are just lazy or mathematically illiterate. Either way, many of them are not living up to their responsibilities. No wonder people are paying less and less attention to the mainstream press.

One final note. Just for fun, I went to CBS News and read their report. Over the last year, I have wondered if those fired from the New York Times and the BBC for making up stories have obtained jobs at CBS. To put it mildly, CBS is not a reliable source if you want the correct facts. I didn’t expect CBS to be in the minority that got it right and they were not. Nor were they in group that claimed the explosion would be the equivalent of 8 million Little Boys. Instead If the asteroid did strike earth, it would hit with the force of more than 25 Hiroshima-sized nuclear bombs. That’s right, CBS thinks an asteroid would only be the equivalent of 25 small nuclear bombs going off. Heck, modern nuclear bombs have a greater yield than this. It looks like, yet again, they forgot to proofread. CBS, if you are tired of all your scientific errors, I'm available on a freelance basis...