A Time for War
In January I predicted that the war to liberate Iraq would begin by Washington’s birthday unless Saddam fled Iraq or was deposed. Obviously, I was wrong. Despite the unilateralist rhetoric from the “Let’s give sanctions and inspections 12 more years” camp, I have been pleasantly surprised by how much President Bush has considered international opinion.
Since January, his administration (along with bloggers and the free press) has changed the Western perspective from this being perceived as another US/UK issue denounced by most of Europe to this being largely a Franco/German/Belgium defense of Saddam vs. most of Europe and the US. Today a draft resolution was submitted to the UN Security Council by the UK and the US. This resolution would be the 18th UN resolution about the problem of Saddam. The draft builds upon Resolution 1441, which gave Saddam 60 days (which have long passed) to disarm or face serious consequences. The new resolution would state Iraq did not cooperate and would now receive serious consequences. France, Russia, and Germany also pressed forward a rival resolution asking for more inspectors and time.
On March 1, the next inspector report will be given to the UN. I don’t expect it to change the minds of anyone involved. However, I do expect a final vote to take place soon that may determine the future of the UN. As Bush and Blair have repeatedly stated, in accordance with Resolution 1441, they will remove Saddam by force if he does not comply. If the UN votes against an additional resolution, the war will still take place. But the UN will be shown to be even more ineffective than is commonly believed. I have no prediction on what France will do if the UN votes again in favor of “severe consequences.” Will they use their veto? Or will they go with the consensus since they can’t change the real outcome anyway?
George Bush and Tony Blair have gathered a coalition of the willing. They have ample proof that Iraq is in violation of Resolution 1441. The combined militaries of the coalition are now in position, or mostly in position. The only part that is still going slowly is obtaining permission from Turkey to use their country for a two-pronged attack. Their government has mostly approved this and a final vote in their Parliament is expected tomorrow. I now predict that the war will start by the third week of March.
