Russian Diplomacy
Den Beste pointed me to an article by Anatole Kaletsky of the Times. It was an interesting article, but Den Beste didn't reference the part that I found most interesting.
But probably the biggest loser from the new global disorder after a veto at the UN by France or Russia would be Europe itself -- and especially the "old Europe" dominated by Germany and France.Not only will the Franco-German betrayal of its erstwhile US ally lead to the demise of NATO (a goal which the Russians may well be trying to promote by apparently supporting France).
Ignoring the fact that Kaletsky didn't complete his sentence, I find this thought intriguing. Russia's military is not happy with the prospect of their former soviet pawns joining NATO for the same reasons that countries like Poland are joyfully applying to join. However, Russia knows they cannot stop these countries from joining NATO and even attempting to do so would be a poor move on their part. But what if there were no NATO?
The Russians are sophisticated politicians and very much served by self-interest. As they should be - so long as their politicians keep the self-interest of their country in mind vs. their personal interests. Russian politicians have been very careful not to fully commit to either side. On one hand, Russia is owed billions by the Iraqi government and Russian firms have rich contracts they would like to see honored. France and Germany are also opening up their markets to some Russian goods, and the Russians want to encourage this. On the other hand, Russia wants to strengthen their relationship with the US for many reasons, including both military and economic issues. However, Russian resistance to the liberate Iraq plan has grown stronger ever since the French, Germans, and Belgiums showed that NATO was subject to the same internal politics as the rest of Europe. Russia may have decided that the chance to eliminate NATO is too great an opportunity to miss. If they believe that their support of France and Germany has a chance of eliminating NATO, then this is going to be a major factor in their decision-making.
