Impressed with how effective the US military was in the first hours in the campaign to liberate Iraq, many journalists have started second-guessing the military now that the war is into its second week. Its second week! And the coalition already has established air superiority, taken control of all Iraqi ports, and controls the majority of the country. In addition, the coalition has managed to protect most of the country's resources for its people, including dams, bridges, and oil fields. The coalition has managed to do this while (to date) suffering a remarkably low number of casualties. In addition, the coalition has done all of this while taking extreme care to minimize the number of civilian casualties and offering Iraqi soldiers many, many opportunities to surrender.
Instead of downbeat reports about 'unexpected' resistance, the media should be discussing the amazing military prowess of the coalition. The only thing unexpected about the war so far has been its rapid progress. Every casualty is regrettable, but only a fool would expect a war with no casualties. More people died from lightening strikes in the US last year than have been killed fighting Saddam's troops. I predict far more people will die from fatal car accidents in Los Angeles County alone in 2003 than all coalitions losses from the entire war.
Let's also look at a reasonable timeframe. The Taliban, a government with only a small fraction of the military resources of Saddam Hussein, lasted 14 weeks against the US government. As Jonathan Last pointed out, even the French - hardly the epitome of military competence - lasted 7 weeks against the Germans. Surely, one would expect the Iraqi regime to fight harder than the French. After all, the thugs that support Saddam Hussein expect death by the hands of their fellow Iraqis for their past atrocities should they ever lose their grip on power. Unless they see an opportunity to survive the peace, they will fight to the last man.
I would be surprised if this war was over in less than 7 weeks. I would not be surprised if it took 14 weeks. Some statistics are provided for you below to help you keep the war in context. Next time someone bemoans our "slow" pace, rattle off a few of them as a reality check. You'll be glad you did.
Coalition Casualties in Context
50,000,000 deaths (conservative estimates) in World War II (summary)
8,000,000 soldiers died (conservative estimates) in World War I (summary)
710,760 US deaths due to Heart Disease in 2000 (CDC)
553,091 US deaths due to Cancer in 2000 (CDC)
407,000 US soldiers killed in WWII (Angelfire)
167,661 US deaths due to Stroke in 2000 (CDC)
134,600 US babies killed by Abortion in 2000 (Germany)
122,009 US deaths due to Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease in 2000 (CDC)
97,900 US deaths due to Accidents in 2000 (largest percentage of these were traffic accidents) (CDC)
69,301 US deaths due to Diabetes in 2000 (CDC)
65,313 US deaths due to Pneumonia/Influenza in 2000 (CDC)
58,000 US soldiers died in Vietnam (two cites)
50,000 US soldiers died (conservative) in World War I (two cites)
49,558 US deaths due to Alzheimer's Disease in 2000 (CDC)
37,251 US deaths due to Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis in 2000 (CDC)
33,000 US soldiers died in Korea (two cites)
31,224 US deaths due to Septicemia in 2000 (CDC)
16,000 to 19,000 US soldiers died in six weeks at the Battle of the Bulge (two cites)
14,400 Chechnyan rebels killed as of March 2003 and uncounted civilians (RFE)
3,770 Russian Soldiers killed as of March 2003 in Chechnyan Conflict (per Russian government)
3,547 persons were killed in international terrorist attacks in 2001, most on September 11 (US)
749 People killed in Los Angeles County car accidents in 2000 (LA Almanac)
89 - average number of people killed in the US per year by lightning (NCDC)
Coalition Timeframe in Perspective
10 years - Soviet Union war with Taliban - Soviets gave up and withdrew
8 years - Vietnam (1965-1973) (American part of war, hostilities against the French started in 1946)
6 years - World War II (assuming 1939-1945; some say WWII started in 1937) - the US entered in 1941
4 years - World War I (1914-1918)
3 years - Korean War (1950-1953) - (although N. & S. Korea have never officially agreed to peace)
14 weeks - US war with Taliban - Taliban surrendered (9 weeks if you just measure until the surrender of Kunzar)
7 weeks - the Battle of the Bulge (important battle in WWII)
7 weeks - the German invasion of France - from initial fighting to official surrender
7 weeks - Gulf War I (US led Desert Storm)
